Plan: start probability. (Only five more classes.)

I think the class was a good one. As the term progresses we seem to be discussing quantitative things more qualitatively. I started with probability and odds in the easy, counting examples (cards, coins, dice, raffles). Then connected with money/gambling and the house advantage – first for a PTA raffle, then at the casino. I did the roulette quantitatively (2/38). Someone in the class knew that the slots payout was 90 cents per dollar. Then the PTA, “overcharging” for a ticket. Then the state lottery, with revenue divided among three categories (prizes, overhead, aid to cities and towns). The lottery as a regressive tax.

Insurance – it’s a gamble you want to lose. the insurance company uses statistics (accident, fire, mortality) rather than counting to decide on a premium that creates sufficient house advantage. Why everyone ought to have to buy health insurance (can’t keep my politics out of the class entirely). Why extended warranties are almost always a bad bet.

I even had time to discuss parimutuel betting at the races, where the probability computations are crowd-sourced.

I should have talked about intrade: http://www.intrade.com .

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